北大经院学术午餐会
第202期
Trade competition and the “Great Migration”: The impact of soybean import shock in China
主讲人：林发勤（中国农业大学经济管理学院教授）
主持老师：高明（8455新葡萄娱乐场特色长聘副教授）
时间：2025年4月11日（周五）10:30-12:00
地点：8455新葡萄娱乐场特色305会议室
主讲人简介：
林发勤，中国农业大学经济管理学院领军教授、博士生导师、经济贸易系主任、农产品国际贸易研究中心主任，社科重大项目和自科国际合作重点项目首席专家，国家级人才称号获得者。先后取得对外经济贸易大学、澳大利亚阿德莱德大学经济学博士学位，曾任中央财经大学国际经济与贸易学院国际贸易系主任。研究成果发表于JIE、JDE、EER、JEBO、JCE和《经济研究》《管理世界》等国内外一流刊物，担任China Economic Review副主编、《中国农业大学学报（人文社科版）》编委，作为主要成员参于首批中国经济学教材《中国开放型经济学》编写，出版畅销书《你应该知道的国际贸易》，研究报告多次获得国家领导人批示。
摘要：
As the largest soybean importing country, this study empirically investigates and quantitatively analyzes the migration effects of soybean import shocks in China, with a focus on the three northeastern provinces—the country's primary soybean-producing region. By constructing the exogenous prefecture-level soybean import shock and using individual-level migration data from the Population Census, we find that soybean import shocks significantly drive rural out-migration, with a one standard deviation increase in soybean import shock raising the probability of out-migration by 4.25%. These shocks disrupt local soybean production, compelling individuals, particularly low-educated and young farmers, to seek employment opportunities in more developed regions, predominantly as migrant workers. Quantitative analysis reveals that soybean import shocks have resulted in a 0.18% increase in the net population outflow rate in Northeast China, alongside a 1.24% decline in real income. Furthermore, most cities in the region experienced reduced real income and elevated net outflow rates following the shock. Cities with higher dependency on the soybean industry, such as Heihe and Qiqihar in Heilongjiang, face more severe welfare losses and greater risks of population outflows.
北大经院工作坊第1071场
Merit-based Recruitment and Government Performance: Evidence from Random Assignment of Administrators
发展与公共财政工作坊
主讲人：张晓鸣（浙江大学社会学系“新百人计划”研究员）
参与老师：
（北大经院）刘冲、吴群锋、曹光宇、年永威
（北大国发院）李力行、席天扬、徐化愚、于航、王轩、易君健、黄清扬
（北大光华）张晓波、仇心诚
时间：2025年4月11日（周五）10:30-12:00
地点：北京大学国家发展研究院承泽园249教室
主讲人简介：
张晓鸣，香港大学经管学院博士，现任浙江大学社会学系“新百人计划”研究员。研究方向为历史政治经济学、历史社会学、组织理论等。目前研究议题包括，历史时期中国的国家能力及其起源、古代官僚体系的组织学原理、中国早期复杂社会的兴起与衰落等。文章发表于American Journal of Political Science; Journal of Development Economics; Journal of Comparative Economics; Journal of Chinese Governance; 《学术月刊》等期刊。
摘要：
How to recruit managers is a central question for public sector organizations. Exploiting a unique random assignment of administrators to counties in imperial China, we study how merit-based recruitment of managers affects government performance in multiple tasks. Combining personnel records and administrative archival data, we find that merit-recruited administrators through civil service exams (as opposed to other non-merit-based recruitment) performed better in public goods provision and tax collection, and were more likely to be recognized for their achievements by the local public. Evidence suggests that these administrators were associated with better management of subordinates. Examining their dual role as judges, we use criminal case data to show that cases judged by merit-recruited administrators had shorter durations, indicating enhanced judicial efficiency. Finally, the performance gain is not due to advantageous family connections. We show evidence consistent with a selection of higher-quality officers. Our results highlight the importance of competitive and open recruitment as a cornerstone of effective public organizations.
供稿：科研与博士后办公室
美编：闻听
责编：度量、雨禾、雨田
